Project Description

The broad objective of PODAS is the development of stochastic models to predict the future evolution of the low earth orbit (LEO) space environment. Of particular interest is to gain an understanding of the carrying capacity of LEO and probability of runaway creation of debris, the so-called Kessler syndrome. Our objective in this project is to utilize geometric random graph models and epidemiological models to this end.

The predicted catastrophic/runaway effects can be likened to a percolation problem in a network or an epidemiological model. At any given time, the LEO environment can be viewed as a network with ``connections'' between objects within close proximity that are at potential risk of collision. Hence a large connected cluster in this network would indicate the risk of a cascading collisions, and such a large cluster emerge when the orbital density increase beyond a certain threshold. Thus the network perspective allows us to define Kessler threshold in a meaningful way.  

Start Date

01/01/2025

Postdoc Qualifications

The primary technical qualifications for the postdoc will be a deep understanding of stochastic processes, in particular random graph models, stochastic epidemic models and diffusion processes. Experience with a broad set of applied probability methodology is useful, but asymptotic analyses will form a bedrock methodology in this project. Above all, the postdoc must be curious and ready to learn about orbital dynamics and models of the space environment. 

Co-advisors

Harsha Honnappa, School of Industrial Engineering, honnappa@purdue.edu.
Souvik Dhara, School of Industrial Engineering, honnappa@purdue.edu. 

Bibliography