Rishi Sunak is spluttering in the polls while Keir Starmer is riding high, but is the 4 July general election already a done deal? We take a look.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will go head to head on 4 July poll. (Alamy)

Labour is on track for one of the biggest general election victories in history – beating Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, according to a new projection of the 4 July contest.

The poll, carried out by YouGov for Sky News, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course to win 422 seats, with the Tories down to just 140 after losing 232 seats. This would be the Conservative Party's worst performance at a British general election for the party since 1906.

If YouGov's predictions are accurate, Labour winning a 194-seat majority would be the highest number since Conservative Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

The latest findings also paint a picture of which key political figures are likely to lose their seats when voters go to polls on 4 July, and which constituencies are on a knife-edge.

YouGov's latest polling suggests Labour is heading for a clear and decisive victory. (YouGov)

YouGov's latest figures coincide with Nigel Farage announcing that he had "changed his mind" and was stepping forward to become leader of Reform UK.

The former Ukip leader claiming he believed the Tories "are on the verge of total collapse", while denying that he could boost Starmer's chances by splitting the vote.

What do the opinion polls say?

YouGov's latest poll, released on Monday (3 June) afternoon, suggests that Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course to win 422 seats, with the Tories down to just 140.

It was put together using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) surveying technique, using a sample size of nearly 60,000 respondents.

The model suggests that the Conservatives could be set for near wipeout across many areas of the country, including London, the North East, the North West and Wales.

It also projects that the Scottish National Party would lose more than half their seats, with Labour returning as the largest party north of the border.

The Liberal Democrats would supplant the SNP as the third party of British politics, taking back that particular crown for the first time since 2010.

Elsewhere, we are projecting that the Greens would win a second Westminster seat for the first time in their history, in Bristol Central, that Plaid Cymru would also win two seats, and that Reform UK would come away as it stands empty handed.

The Tories could be set for near wipeout across many areas of the country, while the Lib Dems could regain their place as the third biggest party. (YouGov)

Who could lose their seats?

YouGov's latest data shows a number of seats held by Cabinet members are at risk of changing hands.

These include Cheltenham, held by justice secretary Alex Chalk, and Chippenham, held by science, innovation and technology secretary Michelle Donelan, with both constituencies projected to go to the Lib Dems.

Education secretary Gillian Keegan’s Chichester seat will also be a closely fought contest between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

Grant Shapps’ seat in Welwyn Hatfield is currently touted as a likely Labour seat, with further competitions from Labour in Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt’s seat), Central Devon (Mel Stride), Forest of Dean (Mark Harper), and Monmouthshire (David T C Davies).

Labour is likely to take former prime minister Boris Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Of those in the shadow cabinet, only Bristol Central looks like a possible defeat – going to the Greens.

Which seats are likely to be close-calls?

According YouGov's model, 131 seats are currently on a knife-edge, meaning the winning party is fewer than five points in the lead.

Out of those, 87 are contests between the Conservatives and Labour – 50 of which the former are leading in.

Frome and East Somerset is a three-way marginal, with the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all on 25-30% of the vote.

Monday's figures may be unwelcome news to the Tories, but there are still a number of seats on a knife-edge. (YouGov)

What are the latest odds?

As of 3 June, Oddschecker – a website which compares odds across different bookmakers – had Labour at 1/20 to win the most seats.

The Conservatives are 25/1 to win the most seats.

What went wrong for the Tories?

So, why have the polls changed so dramatically? It's worth looking back on an extremely eventful four years in UK politics.

Tory support peaked at 53% (with Labour on 32%) in April 2020, months after the party's stunning success in the 2019 general election and Boris Johnson's pledge to “get Brexit done”. That month also saw Starmer take over as Labour leader from Jeremy Corbyn.

This was also amid a spirit of national unity following the onset of the COVID pandemic which nearly killed Johnson himself. The then-PM had been released from hospital five days before this particular survey was taken.

Boris Johnson delivers his final speech as prime minister outside 10 Downing Street in September 2022. (AFP via Getty Images)

Over the rest of the year, there was a downturn in support amid chaos over COVID rules, with the Tories falling as low as 35% in November 2020, compared to Labour on 40%.

However, the UK’s successful COVID vaccination programme provided a pathway out of lockdown and with it, improved poll ratings. Tory support peaked at 41% in June 2021, with Labour at 30%.

In October that year, there was a sense Johnson was untouchable. At the Tory party conference, the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg remarked how the PM was "in total command of his party, and politically dominant in the country".

But this fell apart quickly with the Partygate scandal, which emerged in November that year. Time and again, reports emerged of government and Tory staff – including Johnson – having taken part in lockdown-era social gatherings when their own COVID rules had prohibited them. By January 2022, Tory support had plummeted to 28%, with Labour on 38%.

Johnson struggled on, but never recovered and a wave of ministerial resignations forced him to resign in July that year.

The UK had three separate prime ministers – Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak – between 6 September and 24 October, 2022. (Getty Images)

His successor, Truss, then embarked on arguably the most disastrous prime ministerial reign in history, characterised by the catastrophic "mini-budget", containing £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, which prompted an economic crisis. Like Johnson, she lost the confidence of Tory MPs – and voters – and had to resign.

Her 49-day spell as PM was the shortest in history, with Tory support plummeting to 19% (with Labour on 56%) the day after she announced her resignation in October 2022.

Rishi Sunak, who had lost to Truss in the previous month's Tory leadership election, took over. However, as the above YouGov voting intention chart indicates, he has failed to cut through with voters. Tory support was at 23% two days after he assumed office, with recent surveys showing it either dropping or staying on the same level.

In short, the polls, not to mention other factors such as notable by-election victories for Starmer's Labour, are pointing to a Labour government – whenever the election is called.

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