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There is every probability that the best football player on the planet – Lionel Messi and his Argentina team will be missing next year’s World Cup – and it could be his last chance to emulate the great Diego Maradona gone for good!
There are three scenarios that can play out on Tuesday…
1. Peru beat Colombia
2. Colombia beat Peru
3. Peru and Colombia play out a draw
All these three scenarios are predicated on La Albiceleste beating Ecuador in Quito, but all the odds are seemingly against Messi and his team.
This is because the Argentines have not beaten Ecuador in Quito for the last 16 years and only once since 1960; their current form reads two losses and two draws in their last four matches while new manager, Jorge Sampaoli, is still looking for the perfect striking foil for Messi having failed to gel with Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, Paulo Dybala, Mauro Icardi.
And on Friday morning, Dario Benedetto of Boca Juniors, was thrown in the mix, but to no avail.
The only good note is Sampaoli has not lost since taking over from Edgardo Bauza, but his unbeaten streak may not take Messi to Russia, with the clock gradually winding down on the mercurial player’s career.
But what happened?
The campaign started disastrously with a 2-0 home loss to Ecuador on Matchday 1 – October 9, 2015, but it steadily got worse as the two-time World Champions were held to lackluster draws by the likes of Venezuela, Peru and Paraguay and their greatest undoing must be a lack of goals.
This lack of goals has parlayed through the stewardships of Gerardo Martino, who started the qualifying campaign to Bauza, and now to Sampaoli.
With or without Messi, 16 goals in 17 qualifiers is a terrible return for a team that boasts Messi and the likes of world-class strikers that includes Aguero, Icardi, Dybala, etc. To show how dire the challenge has been, Argentina have scored just one goal in their last three qualifying matches.
Argentina’s 2018 World Cup qualifying matches
05/10/17 Argentina 0 – 0 Peru 05/09/17 Argentina 1 – 1 Venezuela 31/08/17 Uruguay 0 – 0 Argentina 28/03/17 Bolivia 2 – 0 Argentina 23/03/17 Argentina 1 – 0 Chile 15/11/16 Argentina 3 – 0 Colombia 10/11/16 Brazil 3 – 0 Argentina 11/10/16 Argentina 0 – 1 Paraguay 07/10/16 Peru 2 – 2 Argentina 06/09/16 Venezuela 2 – 2 Argentina 01/09/16 Argentina 1 – 0 Uruguay 29/03/16 Argentina 2 – 0 Bolivia 24/03/16 Chile 1 – 2 Argentina 17/11/15 Colombia 0 – 1 Argentina 14/11/15 Argentina 1 – 1 Brazil 14/10/15 Paraguay 0 – 0 Argentina 09/10/15 Argentina 0 – 2 Ecuador
If the results of the matches [shaded blue] had been positive, Argentina would not find herself sixth on the qualifying table, hoping for a Messi Miracle on the last day in Quito!
Hope against Ecuador
Ecuador led the standings for the first five matches in the classification, buoyed by that 2-0 away win over Argentina – they can end the series on a high with another win.
“Our situation is not very comfortable but it depends on us,” Sampaoli said in the post-match press conference.
He continued: “Throughout the game, we had a marked advantage against them, but we could not break through” – a story of their World Cup qualifying campaign.
“In the changing room, there was a feeling of enthusiasm when we found out that if we win in Quito, we will qualify.
“I’m going to take advantage of that chance and so are the players,” Sampaoli added.
But the math is not that easy, Messi’s team still has to win – something they have not done recently in these qualifiers and against Ecuador’s rarefied atmosphere in Quito. If they do not, the world stage would not get the opportunity to say a proper goodbye to Messi, who would be 35-years-old when Qatar 2022 comes around.
We wait for Tuesday.
Ecuador at home to Argentina since 1947