The possible election of Doug Jones, a Democrat, in deep-red Alabama would alter the balance of power in the Senate and could dramatically change the GOP’s agenda in 2018.
A Jones win would put more pressure on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGOP strategist donates to Alabama Democrat McConnell names Senate GOP tax conferees Brent Budowsky: A plea to Alabama voters MORE (R-Ky.) to work with Democrats. Most significantly, it could scuttle efforts to replace ObamaCare and reform entitlement programs — a top priority for Speaker Paul Ryan Paul Davis RyanMcConnell names Senate GOP tax conferees House Republican: 'I worry about both sides' of the aisle on DACA Overnight Health Care: 3.6M signed up for ObamaCare in first month | Ryan pledges 'entitlement reform' next year | Dems push for more money to fight opioids MORE (R-Wis.) in 2018.
If the Senate Republican majority shrinks by one seat — giving them a razor thin 51-49 majority — it will give more leverage to GOP moderates such as Sens. Susan Collins Susan Margaret CollinsOvernight Health Care: 3.6M signed up for ObamaCare in first month | Ryan pledges 'entitlement reform' next year | Dems push for more money to fight opioids Study: ObamaCare bills backed by Collins would lower premiums Right scrambles GOP budget strategy MORE (Maine), Lisa Murkowski Lisa Ann MurkowskiMcConnell names Senate GOP tax conferees Week ahead: Trump expected to shrink two national monuments GOP on verge of opening Arctic refuge to drilling MORE (Alaska), John McCainJohn Sidney McCainGOP strategist donates to Alabama Democrat Meghan McCain knocks Bannon: 'Who the hell are you' to criticize Romney? Dems demand Tillerson end State hiring freeze, consult with Congress MORE (Ariz.), Jeff Flake Jeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP strategist donates to Alabama Democrat Sasse: RNC help for Roy Moore 'doesn't make any sense' Sasse calls RNC decision to resume support for Moore 'bad' and 'sad' MORE (Ariz.) and Bob Corker Robert (Bob) Phillips CorkerFormer Dem Tenn. gov to launch Senate bid: report McConnell 'almost certain' GOP will pass tax reform Former New Mexico gov: Trump's foreign policy is getting 'criticized by everybody' MORE (Tenn.).
But it will also empower maverick conservatives such as Sens. Ron Johnson Ronald (Ron) Harold JohnsonOvernight Cybersecurity: Panel pushes agencies on dropping Kaspersky software | NC county won't pay ransom to hackers | Lawmakers sound alarm over ISIS 'cyber caliphate' GOP chairman warns of ISIS's ‘cyber caliphate’ Overnight Finance: House approves motion to go to tax conference — with drama | GOP leaders to consider Dec. 30 spending bill | Justices skeptical of ban on sports betting | Mulvaney won't fire official who sued him MORE (R-Wis.) and Rand Paul Randal (Rand) Howard PaulLexington mayor launches bid for Congress Trump-free Kennedy Center Honors avoids politics Meet the Iran hawk who could be Trump's next secretary of State MORE (R-Ky.), who have threatened at times this year to derail the GOP agenda to win concessions.
In other words, a Jones win will make McConnell’s job a lot harder if he sticks to his strategy of passing major bills with party-line Republican support.
Republicans had vowed to return to the health-care debate and legislation sponsored by Sens. Bill Cassidy William (Bill) Morgan CassidyTax bill could fuel push for Medicare, Social Security cuts Collins to vote for GOP tax plan Overnight Tech: Lawmakers want answers on Uber breach | Justices divided in patent case | Tech makes plea for net neutrality on Cyber Monday MORE (R-La.) and Lindsey Graham Lindsey Olin GrahamGOP and Dems bitterly divided by immigration We are running out of time to protect Dreamers US trade deficit rises on record imports from China MORE (R-S.C.) to largely replace ObamaCare with block grants to states.
However, a Jones win would likely snuff that plan out completely. Jones has come out against Republican plans to replace ObamaCare.
A Fox News poll released Monday showed Jones leading Republican candidate Roy Moore, who faces multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, by 10 points. Other polls have shown Moore ahead.
“It gives more leverage to your outlying members like Collins and Corker if you continue to run the Senate like you have so far, where everything is negotiated out of the public ... put on the floor and pushed through,” said James Wallner, a former longtime Senate Republican aide.
“If the majority shrinks by one, you only need two people to defeat major legislation under reconciliation,” he added, referring to the budget process Republicans used to try to pass health-care reform with 51 votes this year.
Wallner said what he sees as the slim chances of repealing and replacing ObamaCare become even more unlikely.
He said if Republican voters let Jones win in Alabama, it will signal that conservatives are making their peace with the idea of not repealing ObamaCare, and “then you can have a negotiation with these Democrats and moderate Republicans” on how to reform health care.
Republican leaders such as Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn John CornynMcConnell names Senate GOP tax conferees Air Force makes criminal reporting changes after Texas massacre We need a better pathway for allowing civilians to move guns across state lines MORE (R-Texas) said in September that if Republicans couldn’t muster 51 votes to repeal ObamaCare they would tackle health care on a bipartisan basis.
McConnell and President Trump Donald John TrumpHouse Democrat slams Donald Trump Jr. for ‘serious case of amnesia’ after testimony Skier Lindsey Vonn: I don’t want to represent Trump at Olympics Poll: 4 in 10 Republicans think senior Trump advisers had improper dealings with Russia MORE have already moved in that direction by promising Collins that they will enact legislation negotiated with Democratic Sen. Patty Murray Patricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayDemocrats turn on Al Franken VA slashes program that helps homeless veterans obtain housing: report The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE (Wash.) to shore up the individual health-care markets by the end of the year.
If the Republican majority shrinks by one, Collins “is really holding the cards there,” said Bill Hoagland, another former senior Senate GOP aide, referring to the health-care debate.
“If a red state, a Republican state, one that Trump won overwhelmingly, if that sends a Democrat to the Senate, I think that makes a big difference,” he added.
“It would highlight the importance of working with thoughtful conservatives such as the McCains and the Flakes,” said Sarah Chamberlain, the president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of 70 members of Congress who describe themselves as the “governing wing of the Republican Party.”
McCain helped kill the Senate health-care bill earlier this year, and Flake, a deficit hawk, almost pressured Republican leaders to shrink the size of the tax-cut package by $350 billion to $400 billion.
After the months of negotiation to repeal and replace ObamaCare with a simple majority vote in the Senate failed this summer, trying to do so again in an election year with a smaller GOP majority strikes many Republicans as a fool’s errand.
The GOP tax bill, which eked its way through the Senate this month with 51 votes, likely won’t be affected by a Jones win as leaders hope to have the legislation on Trump’s desk before the Alabama race is certified and the winner seated.
It has taken two to three weeks to certify and seat the winners of other recent special elections, such as Sens. Cory Booker Cory Anthony BookerGOP and Dems bitterly divided by immigration Dems put hold on McFarland nomination over contradictory testimony: report Corker: McFarland's nomination 'frozen' over contradictions in her testimony MORE (D-N.J.), Ed Markey Edward (Ed) John MarkeyNet neutrality supporters predict tough court battle over FCC's repeal plan Avalanche of Democratic senators say Franken should resign Driverless car bill hits Senate speed bump MORE (D-Mass.), Christopher Coons Christopher (Chris) Andrew CoonsSenate ethics panel wants details on sexual harassment allegations American innovation depends on strengthening patents Tax reform and innovation – good news and a cloud MORE (D-Del.) and Joe Manchin Joseph (Joe) ManchinTrump rips Dems a day ahead of key White House meeting Senate panel moves forward with bill to roll back Dodd-Frank Wealthy outsiders threaten to shake up GOP Senate primaries MORE (D-W.Va.).
Empowered moderates, who could see their leverage increase even more, say GOP leaders have already signaled that infrastructure investment, a more bipartisan project, is next on the 2018 agenda, ahead of health care.
Collins told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast this month that infrastructure is the next major order of business in the Senate.
There was talk among Republicans earlier this year about using reconciliation to unwind the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law, but that has also given way to a more bipartisan approach.
The Senate Banking Committee last week voted to advance legislation to roll back federal regulations on small banks. Four Democrats — including three in tough races next year, Sens. Joe Donnelly Joseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyTrump rips Dems a day ahead of key White House meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report Avalanche of Democratic senators say Franken should resign MORE (Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp Mary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampThe Hill's 12:30 Report Avalanche of Democratic senators say Franken should resign Senate panel moves forward with bill to roll back Dodd-Frank MORE (N.D.) and Jon Tester Jonathan (Jon) TesterGOP and Dems bitterly divided by immigration Senate panel moves forward with bill to roll back Dodd-Frank GOP defeats Schumer bid to delay tax vote MORE (Mont.) — voted for the measure.
In some ways, a Jones victory would come almost as a relief to Senate Republican leaders, who have come under enormous pressure from the president and House Republicans to keep their diverse caucus unified.
If Democrats win the Alabama seat, expectations will be lower and McConnell will have a good excuse to work with Democrats on infrastructure, immigration reform and even banking deregulation.
It would also spare Republicans from having to undergo an excruciating deliberation over whether to expel Moore, who has received Trump’s endorsement and has run expressly against the GOP establishment in Washington.
It would save them from the Democratic plan to use Moore to portray the Republican Party as out of touch with the concerns of women.
A new Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans who self-identify as Republican has dropped from 42 percent to 37 percent, a decline driven by white women walking away from the party.
“Roy Moore will be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats. It will define the 2018 election,” Graham told CNN in an interview Monday.
Hoagland said if Moore wins, “it would be as damaging to Republicans as if the Democrat wins.”