Is this the year that Queensland’s decade-plus of State of Origin dominance finally ends?
Ladbrokes punters are not so sure.
NSW are clear $1.60 favourites for the 2018 series opener at the MCG following the exit of so much Origin experience in the Queensland camp led by former skipper Cameron Smith.
But the Blues have made a habit of letting punters down in recent years and the Maroons have won six of the past nine series openers as part of their run of 11 series wins in the past 12 years.
Camera Icon Valentine Holmes is paying $12 to score first in Game One. Picture: News Corp Australia, Adam Head
Ladbrokes have taken far more individual bets for Queensland to win Game 1 than NSW but all the big money has been with the Blues and they currently account for 75 per cent of the hold.
The First Try Scorer betting market is always a popular one for Origin games and Ladbrokes has an excellent offer for Game 1 — if your selection scores the first or second try, you will get paid out as a winner.
The flying Josh Addo-Carr is currently a narrow favourite at $10 from fellow Blues debutants Tom Trbojevic ($11), Latrell Mitchell ($12) and James Roberts ($12), while Dane Gagai ($12) and Valentine Holmes ($12) are the pick of the Queenslanders.
Man Of The Match is another competitive betting market and it is James Maloney ($8) that is currently a narrow favourite from Greg Inglis ($9), Damien Cook ($10), James Tedesco ($10) and Nathan Cleary ($10).
It is the big boppers in the forwards that have attracted the early interest in this market and one punter has had $100 on David Klemmer at the big odds of $51.
NRL
THERE may only be four games in the NRL this weekend but that has not stopped some serious money being thrown around.
The clash between South Sydney and Cronulla — two of the in-form teams in the competition in recent times — has been turned on its head due to State of Origin.
The Bunnies will be without Greg Inglis, Dane Gagai, Angus Crichton and Damian Cook due to Origin commitments while the Sharks will be missing winger Valentine Holmes.
Camera Icon Cooper Cronk will be crucial to the Roosters chances of taking down the Tigers. Picture: Getty Images, Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images
Cronulla opened as $2 outsiders but there was an avalanche of money for the Sharks early in the week and that has only continued with one punter plonking $5000 on Cronulla at $1.67.
Another team that has been well-backed this week is the Eels and punters are confident they can record their third win of the season when they take on the Knights tomorrow night (SAT).
The Knights have now lost four games on the trot and are now friendless after their strong start to the season.
It is the Tigers that will go into the final game of the round as favourites but the market may have overreacted to the fact that the Roosters will be without Origin quartet James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell, Boyd Cordner and Dylan Napa.
The Roosters still have the majority of their spine in place — most notably Cooper Cronk — and the $2.10 available does look over the odds.
AFL
Adelaide young gun Tom Doedee has rocketed into Rising Star favouritism after opening the season as a $51 shot.
He’s now a red-hot $3 chance but a couple of Ladbrokes customers noticed his potential early and were able to get on at very juicy odds.
One punter had early bets of $75 at $51 and $50 at $26 which could see them celebrating a handy payout at season’s end.
Lions defender Alex Witherden is next best at $4 while Sydney’s Ben Ronke is another big mover.
Camera Icon Alex Witherden is one of the favourites for this year’s Rising Star prize. Picture: News Corp Australia, Liam Kidston
He was massive odds of $101 earlier in the season but has come right in to $41.
Ronke’s Swans take on the Blues in Friday night football and they are expected to easily account for the battling Carlton.
The Blues have lost all three of their prime time games so far this season and are 55 point underdogs to turn the tide at the SCG.
Melbourne have surged into flag contention over the past month and the current premiership betting market suggests that this will be the year the Demons break their 12-year finals drought.
They are $1.07 to make the top eight this year and are $13 into $7.50 to win their first flag since 1964.
They have got the Western Bulldogs Saturday and it is a game that has generated plenty of early interest with the Dees shortening into $1.20 after opening at $1.32.
FRENCH OPEN
Former world number one Serena Williams made a return to Grand Slam tennis this week and one Ladbrokes customer was confident she’d win the French Open straight off the racquet.
They whacked $4,800 on her at $13 but she did drift out to $15 after her first round win over Kristyna Pliskova.
Camera Icon Simona Halep has been backed to break her Grand Slam duck. Picture: AFP, AFP Photo/Eric Feferberg
There have also been a number of Ladbrokes punters keen on Simona Halep to finally claim a maiden Grand Slam title.
She has lost her last three major finals, including last year’s French Open and the Australian Open earlier this year, but one punter has kept the faith and had $4000 on her to win.
Kiki Bertens was the big market mover given her terrific form on clay in the lead up.
She won the Charleston Open and made the final in Madrid which saw her backed from $41 into $21.
Ladbrokes offered $7 for Rafael Nadal to win the Men’s Singles title without dropping a set — just like he did at the French Open 12 months ago.
BEST BETS
RACING — The Monstar To Win The Moreton Cup @ $4.50
He doesn’t win out of turn but the Moreton Cup does look like an excellent race for The Monstar. He returned to the races with a credible performance at Scone and this race is weaker. Skye Bogenhuber will settle him right on the speed and this is his chance to return to winning form.
NRL — Sydney Roosters To Win @ $2.10
The Roosters will go into this clash without some key players due to State of Origin duties but the majority of their spine is still intact and that should prove key. The Tigers have struggled for consistency in recent weeks and they are always tough to trust as favourites.
AFL — Melbourne To Cover The Line (-33.5 Points)
Melbourne have won five games on the trot and they were nothing short of dominant against Adelaide. The Western Bulldogs have struggled badly against the best sides in the competition this season and they have covered the line in only three of their past 11 games as underdogs.
SUPER NETBALL — Giants Netball To Win @ $2.40
The West Coast Fever do have the home-court advantage, but there is not as much between these two sides as the current market suggests. The Fever were exposed by the Firebirds last weekend and the excellent defence of the Giants can lead them to victory.