CARLTON must disarm Sydney spearhead Lance Franklin if it is to mastermind a huge upset on the road on Friday night. WEEKEND BETTING GUIDE
But it does look a challenge of monumental proportions and if the Blues are able to win, it would be the fourth biggest upset since TAB started betting on AFL in 1995.
Check out all the TAB odds in our weekly preview of the big clashes in the AFL, best from the racetracks, the NBA Finals and where the money is going in the countdown to Origin I at the MCG next week.
Camera Icon Ethan Brown pilots Iconoclasm to victory at Flemington. Picture: AAP
NICK QUINN’S BEST BETS
HORSE RACING
JAMAICAN RAIN ($1.95)
(Moonee Valley Race 5, No. 4)
Could not have been brilliant winning last start and she again looks the winner. Scratched from a winnable race at Sandown last Saturday in preference of this event and is worth sticking with.
ICONOCLASM ($2.25)
(Moonee Valley, Race 8, No. 1)
Sometimes the more a horse wins the better the price and that seem to be the case with Iconoclasm. He has won five of his past six starts and is worth sticking with as he races his way through the grades.
AFL
GOLD COAST +22.5 ($1.80)
Gold Coast comes into this game fresh after having the bye last week and return to Metricon Stadium. Gold Coast has won this fixture the previous two times. Geelong was belted by 34 points two weeks ago against Essendon before falling in against Carlton last week at home.
ESSENDON +20.5 ($1.85)
Essendon is back in town with two very impressive wins the past fortnight and should be good enough to cover the line against Richmond where they are given a 20.5 point start.
Richmond has lost to every top eight side from 2017 that they have played this season while the Bombers have won every time they have played a team that made finals last year.
THE PUNT SPECIAL
Melbourne to be the highest scoring team of the round at $8. Market is located under Today’s Specials at tab.com.au and the TAB app
Camera Icon Sydney’s Lance Franklin has a superb record against the Blues. Picture: Getty Images
AFL
SYDNEY ($1.03) V CARLTON ($13)
SCG, FRIDAY 7.50PM
STOPPING Lance Franklin will be Carlton’s first task in its bid for a huge upset victory over Sydney on Friday night.
The superstar full-forward, who is $6 with TAB to win the Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal for best player on the ground, notched 10 goals when these teams last met and has a healthy average of five goals against the Blues during his time at the Swans.
Franklin is equal favourite with Josh Kennedy while Luke Parker is $7. Patrick Cripps is the first Blue in the market at $11.
Nine of Franklin’s 10 goals last year were kicked on Liam Jones, with the former Bulldogs forward-turned-defender likely to get first crack at Buddy again.
Evergreen defender Kade Simpson has been a star performer against the Swans, averaging 27 possessions and eight marks in their past seven matches.
If the Blues are able to win, it would be the fourth biggest upset since TAB started betting on AFL in 1995.
The $13 for a Carlton victory is also the fourth longest odds the Blues have been.
Dylan Atkinson
LEADING LONGSHOTS
Biggest ever upsets (since 1995)
$16 — R18, 2014 — STK won by 58 v FRE
$15 — R22, 2012 — GC won by 12 v CARL
$14 — R5, 2011 — GC won by 3 v PA
Carlton’s longest ever odds
$18 — R23, 2015 — L57 v HAW
$17 — R17, 2015 — L138 v HAW
$17 — R9, 2015 — L60 v SYD
$13 — R11, 2018
WHO’S THE BOSS
Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal winner
$5.50 Lance Franklin
$6 Josh Kennedy
$7 Luke Parker
$11 Patrick Cripps
$11 Isaac Heeney
$15 Dan Hannebery
$17+ Others Quoted
HAWTHORN ($1.90) V PORT ADELAIDE ($1.90)
UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA STADIUM, SATURDAY 2.10PM
HAWTHORN has lost just two of 31 matches when they have been favourite in Launceston since the middle of 2010.
Overall, the Hawks have won 44 of 57 games at the ground since they played there for the first time in 2001.
Coincidentally, Port Adelaide was the first team to defeat the Hawks at the venue in Shaun Burgoyne’s third game of his career.
The Power has an impressive record at Launceston, winning five of their eight matches there and Ken Hinkley’s side has also won four of the last six matches against the Hawks.
Both teams are $1.90 with TAB to win this match in a crucial game for the finals aspirations of both teams.
Running machine Isaac Smith will be a key player to watch in this game.
Not only is the wingman in career-best form this season, but he has also played some of his best football against Port Adelaide, averaging 23 disposals and a goal against them.
ESSENDON ($3.25) V RICHMOND ($1.35)
MCG, SATURDAY 7.25PM
THE most predictable and least predictable sides for tipsters this season will meet on Saturday night in the Dreamtime at the G fixture.
Richmond is the only team this year that has not been involved in an upset, while six of Essendon’s matches have been won by the underdog, the most in the competition.
The Tigers have the wood over John Worsfold’s side, having won the last six games against them, stretching back to 2014.
Dustin Martin has claimed the three Brownlow Medal votes in the past three matches, averaging 37 disposals, nine clearances and a goal.
The reigning Brownlow medallist is $6 with TAB to win the Yiooken Award for best on ground on Saturday night, an accolade he received in 2016 and 2017.
With Jack Riewoldt under an injury cloud after his concussion last week and Michael Hurley likely to return to the Bombers side, Cale Hooker could line up back in the forward line.
YIOOKEN AWARD
$6 Dustin Martin
$8 Trent Cotchin
$11 Dyson Heppell
$11 Zach Merrett
$11 Josh Caddy
$13 David Zaharakis
$15 Alex Rance
$15 Jack Riewoldt
$21+ Others Quoted
NBA
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS ($1.10) V CLEVELAND ($7)
OAKLAND, SATURDAY 11AM
IT’S on again.
For the fourth consecutive season Golden State will meet Cleveland in the NBA Finals.
Both Warriors and Cavaliers survived epic Game 7 wins over rivals Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics to book their spot in the big dance.
Kevin Durant and Steph Curry powered the Warriors past the Rockets to keep the dream alive for back-to-back NBA championships.
The Warriors ($1.10) will host the Cavs ($6) in Game 1 tomorrow (AEST) — and be strongly favoured to win their third championship ($1.12) in the past four years despite the presence of LeBron James.
James stared down elimination with a record performance in Game 6 of Eastern Conference Finals before the Celtics capitulated in Game 7.
James is making his seventh consecutive trip to the NBA Finals, having reigned supreme in 2012-13 with Miami Heat and the 2016 Cavaliers.
But the Warriors have been equally dominant, having outscored Houston 122-63 in the second half of the final two games of the series.
HARNESS RACING
VICTORIAN TROTTERS OAKS
TABCORP PARK, MELTON, SATURDAY 8.30PM
CHAMPION trainer-driver Kerryn Manning, the world’s most successful horsewoman, is gunning for a fourth Victorian Trotters Oaks.
Manning previously won the Group 1 feature in 2001, 2004 and 2008.
Aleppo Jewel is the $3.30 favourite for Manning, ahead of ultra-consistent filly Pretty Majestic ($4), Moonlight Dream ($6) and Morgan Mylee ($6).
Manning has driven the three-year-old trotter Aleppo Jewel to victory in the past two starts, including a 30m Ballarat blitz two back in a slick time of 2:01.3.
Pretty Majestic, a firm second favourite, finished third in the Group 2 NSW Trotters Oaks at Menangle two starts back.
Moonlight Dream, for Team Gath, was a close-up second last start at Maryborough, while NSW Trotters Oaks-winner Moonshine Linda ($8.50) looks the pick of the value runners.
Fred Spiteri-trained trotter Fling About ($12) is first-up after a long break, having not been to the races since winning three in a row late last year.
Camera Icon Origin debutants Tom Trbojevic and Angus Crichton during a team training session. Picture: AAP
STATE OF ORIGIN
NSW ($1.55) V QUEENSLAND ($2.50)
MCG, WEDNESDAY 8.15PM
QUEENSLAND ($2.50) has embraced the underdog tag ahead of the NRL State of Origin series-opener on Wednesday night at the MCG.
All eyes will be on the ‘Baby Blues’ ($1.55) after NSW coach Brad Fittler unveiled an exciting 17-man squad, including a record 11 rookies, loaded with speed and talent to burn.
Jack De Belin, Tom Trbojevic, Josh Addo-Carr, James Roberts, Latrell Mitchell, Nathan Cleary, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Damien Cook, Tyrone Peachey, Paul Vaughan and Angus Crichton will all debut for the Blues.
The Maroons, the winners of 12 of the past 13 Origin series, will field two rookies, Felise Kaufusi and Jai Arrow, amid a generational change of their own.
Queensland has endured a turbulent campaign thus far, with Cameron Smith, effective immediately, and Billy Slater, at the end of the series, exiting the representative arena.
Slater will be the 10th player in Maroons history to play 30 Origin games.
Camera Icon Jamie Maclaren will be out to stake a claim on World Cup selection. Picture: News Corp Australia
FOOTBALL
SOCCEROOS ($2.90) V CZECH REPUBLIC ($2.45)
AUSTRIA, FRIDAY 9PM
THE Socceroos ($2.90) will ramp up World Cup preparations against Czech Republic ($2.25) in Austria on Friday night (AEST).
The international friendly is an opportunity for in-form striker Jamie Maclaren to stake a claim on World Cup selection after receiving a shock call-up for injured Socceroo Tom Juric (knee).
McLaren was originally left out when Socceroos coach Bert van Marwijk named an extended 26-man squad earlier this month.
The Socceroos have until June 4 to finalise the 23-man squad for Russia.
While McLaren is yet to score in five games for Australia, the livewire has been in fine late-season form for Scottish club Hibernian — bagging eight goals in 15 appearances.
Van Marwijk has left no stone unturned in Turkey, working the Socceroos incredibly hard over the past 10 days.
Socceroos captain Mile Jedinak only joined the national team last Tuesday after club side Aston Villa’s loss to Fulham in the Championship playoff.
Camera Icon Billy Slater passes the ball during the Queensland State of Origin team training. Picture: AAP
YOU BETCHA
ORIGIN I — BILLY SLATER
MAN OF THE MATCH
The bigger the stage the better Billy goes and there is no bigger stage in Australia than the MCG. Slater will be the glue for a new Queensland spine hungry to begin the post-Smith-Cronk-Thurston era with a bang.
Odds: $13
NBA FINALS
Hard to go past Golden State going the distance, but if Game 1 turns into an old-fashioned beat- down of Cleveland then Steph Curry and Kevin Durant (below) should be right in the thick of the action. Bank on Curry-Durant to score 25+ points each.
Odds: $2.40
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