There is one point that the statisticians and the bookmakers can agree on heading into the 2018 NBA Finals: this could be one of the most lopsided championship matchups in NBA history.
The final series of the season begins with the most lopsided odds since in recent history, with Golden State coming in as a -1000 favorite. Yes, that means you'd need to be $1,000 to make $100 on the Warriors. That is an outrageous number, though it doesn't seem as off because of last year's even more lopsided -2000 number for Golden State. But before that, you need to go back to 2004 to find such a high opening number for the favorite.
And if you're just looking at Game 1, the Warriors are a 12-point favorite. According to ESPN, that ties the aforementioned 2001 Finals (with the Los Angeles Lakers favored over the Philadelphia 76ers) as the largest point spread in a Finals game since 1991.
The Lakers won that series, 4 games to 1. But, for you longshot bettors, the 76ers took Game 1 of the series, 107-101 in overtime — L.A's only loss of the playoffs. To be sure, Golden State has not been that dominant in the playoffs and only have eight more regular-season wins than Cleveland. But their point differential per game was five points better than the Cavs, the fifth-largest gap since 1984.
This is the four straight year we've seen this matchup in the Finals, but it was the closest this year to not happening, as both teams got taken to seven games in the conference finals. There are plenty of folks trying to convince the betting public to get engaged in this series. They point to the defending champs looking tired, not having Andre Igoudala and lacking a low-post defensive presence to stop a slashing James.
They'll say that the Warriors are not that team that went 16-1 straight up in their 17 playoff games last year. And that all might be true. But then we look at Lebron looking tired due to the fact that he has arguably his weakest supporting cast since 2007 and a concussed Kevin Love. The stat guys will tell you that when you look at opponent-adjusted net rating in the playoffs, the Warriors' 15.1 and Cavs' 4.8 gives us the third-widest differential since 1984. And the Cavs couldn't even scare Golden State with Kyrie Irving in the backcourt last year -- and there's no Uncle Drew this year.
The Cavaliers' best shot -- much like the 2001 76ers -- might be in Game 1, despite the over-inflated point spread. That's because we know Iguodala will at least be out for that game. If you look at last year's showdown, as NBA Advanced Stats did, you see the Cavs outscored Golden State by 13.6 points per 100 possessions with Iguodala off the court. But with both players matched up against each other, the Warriors were equally dominant, outscoring James and Co. by 13.2 points per 100 possessions.
There are plenty of bettors that just want to look at odds history and how it played out. So let's look at the opening series prices since 2004 and how the series played out.
Year Favorite Underdog Result 2017 Golden State, -2000 Cleveland, +1000 Warriors, 4-1 2016 Golden State, -200 Cleveland, +162 Cavaliers, 4-3 2015 Golden State, -190 Cleveland, +170 Warriors, 4-2 2014 San Antonio, +200 Miami, +105 Spurs, 4-1 2013 Miami, -240 San Antonio, +200 Heat, 4-3 2012 Oklahoma City, -160 Miami, +140 Heat, 4-1 2011 Miami, -180 Dallas, +160 Mavericks, 4-2 2010 Los Angeles, -180 Boston, +160 Lakers, 4-3 2009 Los Angeles, -290 Orlando, +240 Lakers, 4-1
2008 Los Angeles, -120 Boston, _100 Celtics, 4-2 2007 San Antonio, -500 Cleveland, +350 Spurs, 4-0 2006 Dallas, -145 Miami, +125 Heat, 4-2 2005 San Antonio, -180 Detroit, +160 Spurs, 4-3 2004 Los Angeles, -550 Detroit, +400 Pistons, 4-1
Take a look at that last number. The Lakers were an overwhelming favorite in 2004, largely because of their combination of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal. Moreover, the Lakers roster was loaded with both outstanding role players like Derek Fisher and Rick Fox and big (albeit fading) names like Gary Payton and Karl Malone. The Pistons, in comparison, were a bunch of B-plus players at best like Tayshaun Prince, Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. But together as a team, they demolished the Lakers.