Forecasting NFL's 2016 MVP race has proved futile throughout the season. Every week has welcomed a new candidate while shoving someone else from the discussion. Viewers needed to wait until the final game before they could truly decide.
In what started as the worst season of his career, Aaron Rodgers stormed into the conversation with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions during the Green Bay Packers' closing six-game winning streak. After cementing an NFC North title Sunday night, he's a top contender for this third MVP trophy.
There's no clear-cut winner, but several intriguing options frequent a hypothetical ballot. The steady Matt Ryan led all quarterbacks in many significant categories. Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott guided the Dallas Cowboys to an NFC-best 13 wins, but they may wrestle votes from each other.
Tom Brady and Le'Veon Bell dazzled enough in a dozen games each to factor into the decision process. Yet missing multiple games because of suspensions can't go ignored with a 16-game schedule.
David Johnson, who finished with 2,118 total yards, deserves a seat at the debate, but don't count on the voters awarding someone from a 7-8-1 team.
With the final data sampling submitted for review, let's make the case for the most notable contenders before predicting a winner. The ensuing odds, courtesy of OddsShark, were taken before Brady, Rodgers and Ryan made compelling closing arguments in Week 17.
2016 NFL MVP Odds (as of Dec. 28) Player Pos. Odds Ezekiel Elliott, DAL RB 11-4 Matt Ryan, ATL QB 3-1 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB 3-1 Tom Brady, NE QB 4-1 Dak Prescott, DAL QB 10-1 Le'Veon Bell, PIT RB 25-1 Derek Carr, OAK QB 33-1 Russell Wilson, SEA QB 33-1 Matthew Stafford, DET QB 50-1 OddsShark
Each Top Candidate's Case
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan's 2016 Stats GP CMP % PASS YD YPA TD INT 16 70.4 4,944 9.26 38 7 ESPN.com
Matt Ryan should be the comfortable favorite.
The quarterback for the NFL's leading scoring offense finished the season first in yards per attempt and passer rating. He rates second in both passing yards and completion percentage and threw at least one touchdown in every game.
Why is he not the runaway favorite? As surmised by Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar, the 31-year-old is getting punished, because he's not a flashy star who has ever reached such lofty heights:
Let's be honest. The main argument working against Matt Ryan for MVP is that his name is Matt Ryan. He's not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, and his reputation in NFL circles, at best, has been "poor man's Peyton Manning." However, in his ninth season, Ryan is producing at a level just below what these other quarterbacks achieved at their peaks. That is lofty company to say the least, given the caliber of those MVP seasons.
As noted by NFL Stats before Week 17's game against the New Orleans Saints—after which his quarterback rating climbed to 117.2—those three iconic quarterbacks mentioned by Kacsmar are the only ones to earn an equal or higher single-season passer rating. They all took home MVP hardware after those campaigns:
Matt Ryan's Passer Rating: 115.5
But will he win MVP? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/qdFTaVLNk1 — NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 30, 2016
Perhaps some onlookers dock him points for having Julio Jones at his disposal. Yet, Ryan didn't miss a beat in two games without his star wide receiver, during which he went 35-of-51 for 523 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.
His latest gem against the Saints (331 passing yards and four touchdowns) gave the 11-5 Falcons a first-round bye and the NFC's best point differential (plus-134). It also should have secured Ryan's MVP case. Everyone is making the MVP race harder than it needs to be.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Tom Brady's 2016 Stats GP CMP % PASS YD YPA TD INT 12 67.6 3,554 8.23 28 2 ESPN.com
Conversely, would Brady preside so prominently in talks if he wasn't Tom Brady? The New England Patriots won three of four games without him, only losing when they had to use third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Having missed a quarter of the season, Brady needed to stand head and shoulders above the other candidates. Yet Ryan has him beat in significant efficiency statistics.
So what's the case for Brady? The simplest one: Voters like winners, and the Patriots went 11-1 under his watch. He played just six games with star tight end Rob Gronkowski and has since turned Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan into impact pass-catchers.
He's second to Ryan in quarterback rating, but Pro Football Focus gave him a nearly perfect grade entering the season's final week:
Highest-graded QBs this season:
1. Tom Brady, 98.5
2. Matt Ryan, 92.1
3. Andrew Luck, 92.0
4. Aaron Rodgers, 91.9
5. Drew Brees, 88.4 pic.twitter.com/ePjhYUseib — Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 1, 2017
In an alternate timeline where he never received a delayed Deflategate suspension, he probably beats out an equally deserving Ryan because of personal and team pedigree. Voters, however, can't simply ignore that gap without penalty.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott's 2016 Stats GP RUSH RUSH YD YPC REC REC YD TD 15 322 1,631 5.1 32 363 16 ESPN.com
Ezekiel Elliott ran away with the rushing title, recording 318 more yards than runner-up Jordan Howard despite sitting out Week 17. He tallied the most carries (322) by a comfortable margin, but he handled the demanding workload with rousing efficiency.
The rookie running back also found the end zone 16 times and brokered an NFL-best 14 runs of 20 yards or more. And yes, his Cowboys finished atop the NFC.
Then again, Darren McFadden amassed 1,089 rushing yards behind the same powerhouse offensive line last season. Put him or Alfred Morris in the leading role behind three 2016 Pro-Bowl blockers, and the Cowboys are still a playoff threat.
Neither of them, of course, would have sniffed 2,000 total yards and vaulted Dallas to No.1 in Football Outsiders' offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) through Week 16. Elliott helped the unit reach a new level of excellence, yet he's benefiting from big-market bias.
He's not the best choice—Johnson had a better year in worse circumstances, so how can Elliott win MVP if he wasn't the best player at his position?—but the neophyte wields a legitimate chance of taking home the trophy.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers' 2016 Stats GP CMP % PASS YD YPA TD INT RUSH YD RUSH TD 16 65.7 4,428 7.26 40 7 369 4 ESPN.com
A Week 1 touchdown counts the same as a Week 16 score. A Week 2 loss doesn't vanish from existence just because it happened months ago. Fully rational voters will study the full picture rather than falling victim to recency bias, but few humans are fully rational.
Rodgers needed a superhuman stretch to vault the Packers into the playoffs and thrust himself into the MVP conversation. Eleven weeks into the season, he registered a mediocre 6.73 yards per pass attempt for the 4-6 Packers.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
But everyone remembers the ending more vividly than the entire journey. Just ask How I Met Your Mother fans, who recall the cruel finale above the previous 207 episodes. He closed the season by tossing four touchdowns in each of the final two games, carrying the Packers to their eighth-straight playoff appearance in the process.
The Patriots won their first three games without Brady, but this Green Bay team would struggle to win three games in a full season without Rodgers. There's no way it wins the division without the two-time MVP carrying a below-average ground game and defense down the stretch, so supporters can argue that he means more to his club than any other candidate.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott's 2016 Stats GP CMP % PASS YD YPA TD INT RUSH YD RUSH TD 16 67.8 3,667 7.99 23 4 282 6 ESPN.com
Before drafting Elliott, the Cowboys ran the ball well in 2015. They still stunk, as abysmal quarterback play without Tony Romo derailed them to 4-12.
From the "which player is more vital to the team's success?" standpoint, Dak Prescott is Dallas' team MVP. That's assuming the award can't break off in five pieces to disseminate among the real MVP: its entire offensive line.
Overlooking the outlier of last year's Denver Broncos, it's nearly impossible to succeed without a solid quarterback. The fourth-round pick from Ole Miss gave the Cowboys better than solid, placing among the top five in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and quarterback rating. In his first year under center, he has thrown an interception on under 1 percent (0.9) of his passes.
Yet, Prescott's raw numbers have taken a hit because of Elliott's heavy usage. In an era where 5,000 passing yards is a reachable measure for elite passers, Prescott fell short of 4,000. Despite sitting out September, Brady threw five more touchdowns (Prescott also recorded six rushing scores) in only 27 fewer pass attempts.
A highly effective quarterback on a top Super Bowl contender should still net a top-five finish, but winning is a stretch.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Le'Veon Bell's 2016 Stats GP RUSH RUSH YD YPC REC REC YD TD 12 261 1,268 4.9 75 616 9 ESPN.com
Le'Veon Bell averaged 157.0 yards per game from scrimmage this season. Had he sustained that average for 16 games instead of 12, he would have broken Chris Johnson's single-season record by three yards.
If Rodgers gets a bump for late-season dominance, why not Bell? Just like the Packers, the Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a four-game losing streak early in the campaign. The 24-year-old running back accumulated 1,091 total yards and seven touchdowns in six ensuing games, all Steelers victories.
Joe Sargent/Getty Images
Despite serving a three-game suspension and resting in Week 17, he finished fifth in rushing yards. With a full slate, he would have challenged Matt Forte's single-season reception record (102) for a running back.
On a per-game basis, he has a valid claim. A dozen transcendent games from a non-quarterback, however, is a hard sell, especially when the well-fed Elliott ran wild all season.
Prediction
MVP Ballot Predictions Place Player 1 Matt Ryan 2 Aaron Rodgers 3 Ezekiel Elliott 4 Tom Brady 5 Dak Prescott 6 Le'Veon Bell Author's predictions
Brady and Bell will suffer from missed time. Elliott and Prescott will inadvertently wrestle votes away from each other. Late push aside, Rodgers recorded the second-worst yards-per-attempt average during his nine seasons as Green Bay's starting quarterback.
Even if Ryan doesn't garner the most first-place votes, he will reside high on everyone's ballot. The other choices are exciting, but his candidacy has no blemishes. Some judges may ignore Brady and Bell entirely or decide there's only room for one Cowboys rookie.
Although Elliott, Brady and Rodgers will all finish within proximity of the prize, Ryan deservedly wins a close race.