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Carlos Osorio/Associated Press
15. Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons
Age: 25
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 48.1 percent shooting
Advanced Metrics: 16.9 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), 0.94 Real Plus-Minus (RPM), 60.97 Total Points Added (TPA)
Tobias Harris' 2017-18 season is in the hands of Detroit Pistons head coach and president Stan Van Gundy. If Stanley Johnson and Luke Kennard cannot play themselves into essential roles, or if Van Gundy is hell-bent on getting minutes for Jon Leuer and Anthony Tolliver, Harris will be relocated to small forward.
Detroit should do everything possible to make sure this doesn't happen.
Harris can score as a 3, but he's a nightmarish matchup at the 4. He has the first-step edge to get around even the pseudo-wings, and bigger forwards don't have the side-to-side amble to hang with him around screens. Harris paced the Pistons in points scored per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler—R.I.P. 2015-16 Reggie Jackson—and will continue smoking opponents off the dribble if slotted in the right spot.
Putting him this low is a hedge against too many minutes at small forward, where he's an above-average to replacement-level player.
14. Patrick Patterson, Oklahoma City Thunder
Age: 28
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 40.1 percent shooting
Advanced Metrics: 10.8 PER, 2.31 RPM, 28.39 TPA
Patrick Patterson's offseason arthroscopic procedure doesn't remove him from consideration. He's too good for reachy caveats.
Oklahoma City can, and should, use him as a lineup supercharger. Combinations that feature him as a small-ball 5 will do some serious damage, but he switches smoothly enough on defense and swishes spot-up triplets at a high enough clip to remain effective as a full-time 4.
Don't stop me if you heard this one before, because you probably have. But it bears repeating: He finished second on the Toronto Raptors in 2016-17 (plus-348) and first in 2015-16 (plus-403) in plus/minus. That doesn't happen by chance.
13. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 21
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: N/A
Advanced Metrics: N/A
Inserting rookies into these shindigs is maddeningly difficult. Ben Simmons is particularly tough to place when he has yet to prove he can function in any kind of off-ball role.
First overall picks are traditionally worth this type of gamble. Simmons is no different. Even after accounting for his confined range—he shot just 32.9 percent on two-point jumpers at LSU, per Hoop-Math.com—he has the goods everywhere else to render the Philadelphia 76ers an offensive dream.
As The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote:
"The mismatches also extend to the half court. With Simmons on the floor, the Sixers will use on-ball and off-ball screens to find the most desirable matchup. Though Simmons is the "point guard," 2017 no. 1 pick Markelle Fultz will have the ball in his hands plenty. Fultz is a dynamic pick-and-roll playmaker who can pull up over the top of defenses or snake his way to the rim. Joel Embiid should prove to be a massive screening threat for Fultz, but Simmons’s off-ball impact shouldn’t be overlooked.
"If Simmons screens for Fultz, or vice versa, defenses will look to switch, which would place a smaller player on Simmons and a larger player on Fultz—the starting point for most mismatches in the NBA. If Simmons has a big size advantage, the Sixers could benefit from using him on the post."
Let the record show Simmons is more likely to outperform his placement than wilt against it.
12. James Johnson, Miami Heat
Age: 30
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 steals, 1.0 steals, 1.1 blocks, 47.9 percent shooting
Advanced Metrics: 17.0 PER, 2.36 RPM, 111.66 TPA
Behold, every player to walk out of the 2016-17 crusade exceeding 20 points, nine rebounds, six assists and two blocks per 100 possessions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol and...James Johnson.
Also behold, every Eastern Conference player (from last year) to match Johnson's values added on both sides of the floor, as determined by NBA Math's TPA: Antetokounmpo, Paul Millsap and...that's it.
Are we done here? I think we're done here.
11. Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors
Age: 28
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks, 48.0 percent shooting
Advanced Metrics: 16.4 PER, 0.57 RPM, -19.42 TPA
Consider this a gift. Serge Ibaka could check in even lower.
This isn't to insinuate he's not a worthwhile contributor. He is. He owns his role. He'll block shots and hit threes.
The problem: That's about all he does at a high level, and the Raptors will hamstring his ability to keep sending back attempts at the rim by consigning him to power forward.
Ibaka is a 5 in today's NBA. He doesn't switch as well on defense like contemporary 4s, and the total absence of an off-the-dribble game curtails his offensive potential.
Build upon his maxed-out skill set, and Ibaka will climb. But again: Toronto doesn't have the roster malleability to guarantee him swathes of minutes at center, where his best shot at evolving into something more than a rather-ordinary stretch big lies.