The NFL postseason picture is set. Here's a look at where we stand.
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AFC Playoff Picture and Super Bowl Predictions
The No. 1-seeded New England Patriots and No. 2-seeded Kansas City Chiefs have byes through the Wild Card Round and will host divisional-round games in two weeks.
The No. 6-seeded Miami Dolphins will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the No. 3-seeded Steelers, while the No. 5-seeded Oakland Raiders will go to the home of Super Bowl LI and face the No. 4-seeded Houston Texans.
Teams will be re-seeded after the Wild Card Round, with the lowest remaining playoff seed facing the New England Patriots and the highest remaining playoff seed playing in Kansas City.
As for how things might shake out, it's hard to envision any team knocking off the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium.
Tom Brady and the Pats are out for vengeance after the Deflategate punishments from earlier this season. They'd love nothing more than to accept the Lombardi Trophy in front of millions of people from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who handed those sanctions down.
The Pats finished 14-2 (11-1 with Brady starting) and showed no signs of slowing down against playoff-bound Miami Sunday, defeating the Dolphins, 35-14. Brady may not have All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, but he has three running backs, four wide receivers and another solid tight end in Martellus Bennett to spread the ball around to in any given game.
One day, Julian Edelman might catch eight passes for 151 yards and a touchdown (as he did Sunday against Miami). On another day, LeGarrette Blount might rush for 127 yards and two touchdowns (as he did against Pittsburgh in October). There's a new hero every week.
Presuming Pittsburgh wins at home against Miami, which it should do if Le'Veon Bell takes care of business against one of the league's worst run defenses, the winner of the KC-Pittsburgh divisional-round matchup poses the biggest threat to the Pats' Super Bowl plans. The Steelers have the offense to go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and Co., while the Chiefs have the defense, led by game-changing safety Eric Berry, to slow down the Pats.
Oakland looked lost Sunday against Denver without quarterback Derek Carr, who is done for the season with a broken leg. Houston and Miami also looked listless in losses. All three teams have quarterback concerns, so it's difficult to envision any of them besting one of the top three AFC seeds.
Ultimately, the Pats have intangibles, home field and a wealth of postseason experience on their side. Expect New England to coast through the playoffs en route to its seventh Super Bowl appearance in 16 seasons.
Projected AFC Champion: New England Patriots
NFC Playoff Picture and Super Bowl Predictions
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The No. 1-seeded Dallas Cowboys and No. 2-seeded Atlanta Falcons received byes through the Wild Card Round and will host divisional-round games next.
In the Wild Card Round, the No. 5-seeded New York Giants face the No. 4-seeded Green Bay Packers, while the No. 6-seeded Detroit Lions go to Seattle and take on the No. 3-seeded Seahawks.
Dallas is still the favorite thanks to one of football's best rushing offenses. Football Outsiders ranks it second in rushing offense DVOA, and it is also third in passing offense DVOA. The Cowboys' well-balanced attack has only scored fewer than 26 points once in eight home games this year (the lone exception being 19 points in a 20-19 loss to New York in the season opener). Luckily for the Cowboys, they have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Four NFC teams pose legitimate threats to their Super Bowl berth.
Atlanta is firing on all cylinders right now. Quarterback Matt Ryan can make a case as the NFL's best quarterback (and perhaps Most Valuable Player) this year. Through Week 16, his 115.5 passer rating stood first in the entire league. It helps to have Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman wreaking havoc every single game. However, Atlanta's porous defense, which just gave up 19 fourth-quarter points in a 38-32 win over New Orleans that should have been over at halftime, might prove to be the Falcons' Achilles' heel.
Seattle and Green Bay have somewhat similar resumes. Both have Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks who can wreak havoc with their legs (Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers). Both have running games that have sputtered all season. Both have massive home-field advantages, and both have fantastic and dependable No. 1 wide receivers (Doug Baldwin and Jordy Nelson).
However, both have significant issues outside the run games. For Green Bay, it's susceptible to big passing days. Through Week 16, it has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and the most passing yards per attempt in football. For Seattle, the offensive line has simply underperformed all season. Aside from the aforementioned running problems, the Packers are tied for fifth in the league in most sacks allowed (40) through Week 16.
The Giants are on fire right now, going 9-2 in their last 11 games and allowing over 20 points just three times in that span. The defense is one of the league's best, thanks to a ferocious defensive line and a ball-hawking secondary.
Everyone knows what the offense is all about: It's Odell Beckham or bust. However, the Giants showed some signs of life on the ground Sunday night in a 19-10 win against Washington, with Paul Perkins and Rashad Jennings combining for 161 yards and a touchdown. If the run game continues its momentum into the playoffs, then the G-Men will be an absolute force to be reckoned with.
Their issue is the road to Houston will be very difficult, as they'll likely be traveling the entire way. Winning three games on the road en route to a Super Bowl win is nothing we haven't seen before—the 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers did just that—but it's still a difficult endeavor.
Detroit has not beaten a team that has made the postseason as of this writing. With Matt Stafford playing with an injured middle finger and the pass defense allowing a 72.9 percent pass completion rate, along with a 105 passer rating, both league-worst, it's hard to envision the Lions making a deep run in the playoffs.
In a year where there's no dominant team, the squad with the fewest flaws will likely emerge from the pack. In the NFC's case, that's Dallas.
Projected NFC Champion: Dallas Cowboys