David Phillip/Associated Press
The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers will meet for the fourth consecutive season in the 2018 NBA Finals, with the former listed as big home favorites over the latter at the sportsbooks for Game 1 on Thursday and the championship series overall.
The Warriors and Cavaliers each made it back here after winning Game 7 on the road in their respective conference championship series.
NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites; the total is at 215.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 106.9-98.9, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)
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Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread
Cleveland is only as good as LeBron James, and that is pretty good right now.
James has enjoyed arguably the greatest postseason of his career individually and will do everything he can to beat one of the greatest teams of all time for the second time in three years.
Few thought the Cavaliers could rally back from a 3-1 series deficit in the 2016 NBA Finals, but they did just that to earn their first league title.
Elise Amendola/Associated Press
James is averaging 34 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game during Cleveland's current playoff run, and he will do his best to continue posting those numbers in this series.
Why the Warriors can cover the spread
James is just one player, and that obviously works in Golden State's favor.
The Warriors have four players who are capable of stepping up and delivering outstanding performances, with Kevin Durant's goal to make James work hard on defense in an effort to tire him out as he did a year ago in the NBA Finals.
Durant was brought to Golden State for that reason, equalizing James and allowing Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to be the difference-makers.
While the Warriors struggled at times offensively against the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, they overcame double-digit halftime leads in the last two games to win in routs.
Smart betting pick
Golden State is 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 against the spread in the past eight meetings, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, including the 2017 NBA Finals.
The Warriors beat the Cavaliers 4-1 last year, winning the first two games at home by an average of 20.5 points, and bettors should expect a similar result.
While James is better than Houston's James Harden, he will not be enough as Golden State wins and covers.
NBA betting trends
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
The total has gone under in four of Golden State's last five games at home.
Golden State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games at home against Cleveland.
All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.