Something has to give tonight in the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid v Bayern
Champions League quarter-final, 2nd leg
Tonight: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, 7.45pm Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, 7.45pm Referee: Viktor Kassai (Hungary) TV: eirSport 1, BT Sport 3 Bet: Real Madrid 7/5 Bayern 9/5 Draw 14/5
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have both reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the past five years.
Madrid have won it twice, Bayern once — the year after they lost the final in their own stadium.
They have become the two most consistent sides in the tournament, and this is a contest steeped in history.
They are meeting for the 24th time, which makes it the most-played fixture in European competition, and the score over their 10 previous knockout contests stands at 5-5.
By rights this should have been the final.
With all that pedigree it seems a little surprising that the bookmakers should be writing off Bayern, given the way they dominated for most of the first half last week.
They controlled the game and hardly gave Cristiano Ronaldo a chance; Arturo Vidal was a constant threat with his runs from midfield.
Right on half-time, the penalty that would have put them two up was blazed into the roof of the stand rather than the roof of the net.
Vidal was the culprit and he might easily have had a hat-trick at that stage.
Then Ronaldo turned the match on its head, and Javi Martinez became the second Bayern player to have a rush of blood, when he was booked twice in less than three minutes.
A man down for the last half-hour, Bayern were on the ropes at the end and the tie would have been over but for Manuel Neuer and a couple of offside decisions.
A 2-1 deficit is not impossible to overcome, even in the Bernabeu, although Carlo Ancelotti has injury worries about two of his key defenders, Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng.
However he has options to replace the suspended Martinez, and there is pace in reserve that can cause problems for the Madrid defence.
Above all Bayern should have Robert Lewandowski back at centre forward, and his presence at the focal point of the attack, as well as his 38 goals, have been crucial in their efforts to repeat the treble-winning campaign of four years ago.
How badly Bayern need Lewandowski was demonstrated by Saturday’s goalless draw at Bayer Leverkusen.
Having been down to 10 men against Madrid, this time Bayern had the luxury of the extra man for the last half-hour, but could not make it count.
They had two efforts cleared off the line and missed a lot of chances, the best falling to an unmarked Phillip Lahm six minutes from time. Thomas Müller again showed that he is more of a creator than a scorer.
Madrid fans had more to cheer about, after their team came back from 2-1 down to beat Sporting Gijon 3-2. Zinedine Zidane took a risk, with nine changes from midweek, and it paid off — just. The win was largely thanks to the performance of Isco, who scored twice, the second in the 90th minute.
Gareth Bale was rested, along with Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, and he may not be fit for tonight, but Isco was so good against Sporting that it will be hard for Zidane to drop him in any case. Isco has only had 15 starts in league games this season, and just one in the Champions League, yet he would be an automatic first-choice for many other top sides.
Madrid are obviously favourites to go through, especially with those two away goals, but like this week’s other ties this is a match that could suddenly tilt.
“We don’t need a miracle like Barcelona had in their return match against Paris,” said Müller yesterday.
“We will not be inhibited against them. We need two goals and have 90 minutes for that.
“If we can do that alone then we can force extra time.”
For him, and for eight of his team-mates, there are memories of the semi-final shoot-out five years ago, when Ronaldo, Kaka and Sergio Ramos failed from the spot in front of a horrified Bernabeu.
Neuer was Germany’s hero and he seemed to unnerve several Madrid players. Ronaldo, in particular, is mentally stronger now, but don’t be surprised if he avoids catching the referee’s eye tonight. Victor Kassai was the man in charge back then as well.